Affects of Different Variables on the High School Dropout Rate

The Strange Relationship Between Income and the High School Dropout Rate

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Abstract        

This research paper shows the determents that causes a high school student to dropout. The goal of this paper is to show the most significant variables that cause a high school student to drop out. This has been done by examining each state’s dropout rate along with numerous other independent variables. To represent the causes of high school dropouts we have chosen these variables, teen pregnancy, and annual income of the household, devoice rate, violent crime rate, obesity rate, and percentage of high school students making minimum wage. Our research suggests that the higher the teen pregnancy rate the higher the dropout rate.

Introduction:

Overall, the high school dropout rate has remained virtually unchanged in the past few decades and still poses a severe problem for many states.  Although the common consensus is that most dropouts are struggling through school, Robertson found that “between 18 and 25 percent of all gifted and talented students drop out” (1991). He also estimated that “25 percent of all students drop out of school by age 16” (1991). Dropping out “must be understood not as a single event but an outcome that begins with school disengagement…” (Messacar, 2013) and develops from a lack of communication from the student, school, and the parents. The high school dropout rate is affected by many factors including teen pregnancy, income, and amount of divorced parents. According to Messacar, “16% of dropouts are unemployed and 32% live below the poverty line” (2013). It has been found that “33% of recent female dropouts have given birth as a teenager” (Messacar 2013). Pregnant females in high school not only affect the dropout rate but also affect the work force; “the presence of children has, by far, the greatest impact on the labor force participation…” (Markey, 1988). Markey found that “just over one-third of the dropouts who were mothers were in the labor force” (1988). Income is also a substantial motive for why students drop out of high school; “Low-income adolescents continue to drop out of high school at higher rates than other socioeconomic groups” (Englund, M. M., Egeland, B., & Collins, W, 2008). Family income seems to have a large impact on the dropout rate “since a poor youth may be under strong pressure to leave school…” (Masters, 1969). As one would assume, divorce also plays a role in the dropout rate. One source discovered that “as divorce rates increased, the level of high school completion dropped” (Mackey, 2012). “It has been reported that divorce has a negative effect on children’s academic achievement” (Raynish, 2007) which often leads students to dropping out before completing high school.

            Other variables affect the dropout rate such as obesity and the amount of violent crime the community faces. A study in Texas showed that “youth who drop out of school tend to engage in criminal activity” (Ikomi, 2010). Ikomi hypothesizes that dropping out “leads to increased violent felonies in the community” (2010). Professors from Pennsylvania State found that boys who are involved with violent groups are “at much greater risks of high school dropout than other students” (Staff, Kreager, 2008). A large number of absences can eventually lead to dropping out. Many reasons can be given for increased absenteeism, and obesity is one of them. Studies have reported an “increase in school absenteeism in obese children relative to those of normal weight” (Rappaport, Daskalakis, Andrel, 2011). Strangely enough, one study found that for males, “there is no effect of being either overweight or obese on the likelihood of on-time high school graduation” (Okunade, Hussey, Karakus, 2009). However for females, “obesity lowers the likelihood of on-time graduation by about 5%” (2009).

Methods:

            We hypothesized that the percent of high school drop outs is directly related to the teen pregnancy rate. The teen pregnancy rate is what percent of teens per state become pregnant. Our information was found from the CDC’s survey on birth rates of teenagers between ages 15-19. This data was collected during the years 2010 and 2011.  We hypothesized that annual income rate was inversely related to the percent of high school dropout rates. The annual income rate is how much a family makes in capital yearly.  This information was found by the U.S. Census Bureau in a current population survey. The information was surveyed from 2009 to 2011.  We hypothesized that the divorce rate was directly related to the high school dropout rate. Divorce rate is the percent of families that the main guardians are legally separated in per state annually.  This information was collected by the National Center for Health Statistic in a nationwide survey. The data we used was collected during 2002.  The violent crime rate per state is directly related to the high school dropout rates. The violent crime rate is defined as offenses which involve force or threat of force per 100,000.  The information we used is from the survey of the United States Census Bureau in 2006. We hypothesized that the obesity rate was directly related to the percentage of high school dropout rates. The obesity rate is on average the amount of people who’s BMI exceeds 30 kg/m squared.  This adult data compiled by the CDC during 2005-2007 in a United States health survey, and the child data came from the National Survey of Children’s Health in 2003-2004 in another health survey.  We hypothesized that the percentage of workers at minimum wage was also directly related to the teen pregnancy rate. The percentage of workers at minimum wage is the percent of people by state that are reported to work at minimum wage. This information was found by the Labor Force Statistics from a current population study in 2012.

Results:

Table 1: Descriptive Statistics and Correlations among High School Dropout Rate, Teen Pregnancy, Annual Income, Divorce Rate, Violent Crime Rate, Obesity Rate, and Percent of Workers at Minimum Wage.

Variable Correlations 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1. Percent of High School Drop Outs --- 2. Teen Pregnancy .24* --- 3. Annual Income -.045* -.74* --- 4. Divorce Rate .01 .23 -.12 --- 5. Violent Crime Rate .35 .44 -.25 .002 --- 6. Obesity Rate .060 .56 -.51 -.03 .46 --- 7.Percentage of Workers at Minimum Wage -.32* .49* -.4* .15* .12* .39* --- Mean 3.88 31.26 51396 4.16 408.14 14.28 2.07 SD 1.88 9.64 7670.7 1.85 183.53 3.24 1.18

Teen pregnancy rate, annual income, and the percentage of workers at minimum wage are statistically associated with high school dropout rate at the .05 level of significance.  Divorce rate, violent crime rate, and obesity rate are not statistically associated with high school dropout rate. Results of the regression analysis show that as the teen pregnancy rate rises, so too does the high school dropout rate. Additionally, as the percentage of workers at minimum wage increases, the high school dropout rate decreases. The divorce rate, obesity rate, and violent crime rate do not seem to be related to the dropout rate once teen pregnancy, annual income, and workers at minimum wage are taken into account.

Note. n = 50 * p < .05

Table 2: Regression of High School Dropouts, Teen Pregnancy, Annual Income, Divorce Rate, Violent Crime Rate, Obesity Rate, and Percentage of Workers at Minimum Wage Rate.

Variable	b	se	95% CI	t
Teen Pregnancy	.10	9.64	.04, .17	3.07*
Annual Income	4.15x10^-05	7670.7	9.913x10^-006, 7.311x10^-005	2.66*
Divorce Rate	-.02	1.85	-.29, .25	-.15
Violent Crime Rate	.00	183.53	-.001, .005	1.35
Obesity Rate	-.03	3.24	-.21, .14	-.38
Percentage of Workers at Minimum Wage	-.84	1.18	-1.31, -.37	-3.61*
Intercept	5.05	3.05	-1.11, 11.22	1.66

Note. R² = .24, adj. R² = .15, F = 2.59*, df = 5,40 n = 50. *p < .05.

Conclusion:

Many variables contribute to the high school dropout rate in the United States such as teen pregnancy, annual income, divorce rate, violent crime rate, obesity rate, and the percentage of workers at minimum wage. Out of all of these variables we found three significant variables that include teen pregnancy, annual income, and the percentage of workers at minimum wage. This means that there is a very likely chance of a teen female to dropout if she is to become pregnant. It is so extensive that 33 percent of female high school dropouts are pregnant. This makes it invaluable for states with high dropout rates in general to educate on teen pregnancy. Furthermore, annual income also has an immense correlation to high school dropouts.  This could be due to parents not valuing education and making it tough for teens to finish high school. This could also be troubling homes where the kid drops out to help their family or move on. We also found that the percentage of workers at minimum wage had an inverse relationship with the dropout rate. That means that as more people are working at minimum wage there is a lower amount of high school dropouts. This may be due to the students not being able to find any better jobs forcing them to go into low reward labor. This makes it viable for high school teens to continue their education and for states to put more emphasis on these three variables that contribute to the high school drop out rate.

Bibliography:

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Ikomi, P. A. (2010). JUVENILE VIOLENT FELONY REFERRALS AND HIGH SCHOOL DROPOUTS: IS THERE A RELATIONSHIP?. International Journal Of Academic Research, 2(4), 379-384.

Mackey, B. C. (2012). FATHER PRESENCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT: DAD AS A CATALYST FOR HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATIONS. Education, 133(1), 139-150.

Markey, J. P. (1988). The labor market problems of today's high school dropouts. Monthly Labor Review, 111(6), 36.

Masters, S. H. (1969). THE EFFECT OF FAMILY INCOME ON CHILDREN'S EDUCATION: SOME FINDINGS ON INEQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITY. Journal Of Human Resources, 4(2), 158-175.

Messacar, D. (2013). Staying in School: A Proposal for Raising High-School Graduation Rates. Issues In Science & Technology, 29(2), 55-61.

Okunade, A. A., Hussey, A. J., & Karakus, M. C. (2009). Overweight Adolescents and On-time High School Graduation: Racial and Gender Disparities. Atlantic Economic Journal, 37(3), 225-242. doi:10.1007/s11293-009-9181-y

Rappaport, E. B., Daskalakis, C., & Andrel, J. (2011). Obesity and Other Predictors of Absenteeism in Philadelphia School Children. Journal Of School Health, 81(6), 341-344. doi:10.1111/j.1746-1561.2011.00599.x

Raynish, A. (2007, December 15). The Price of Divorce. Online Submission

Robertson, E. (1991). Neglected dropouts: The gifted and talented. Equity & Excellence, 25, 62-74.

Staff, J., & Kreager, D. A. (2008). Too Cool for School? Violence, Peer Status and High School Dropout.Social Forces, 87(1), 445-471.